In 2024, the global capacity of “green” hydrogen production plants increased by 53.5%, reaching 399.3 thousand tons per year. The main growth was provided by OECD countries (25%) and other countries, including China (75%).

Production technologies

“Green” hydrogen is produced by electrolysis of water using wind and solar energy. In contrast, “gray” hydrogen is produced by steam reforming of methane, and “brown” hydrogen is produced by coal gasification. In 2023, “green” hydrogen accounted for less than 0.5% of global production (97 million tons).

Reducing the hype

Expectations of rapid growth in the industry did not come true: the capacity of electrolysis plants in 2023 was 6 times lower than the IEA forecasts for 2021. The main reason is the high capital intensity of projects with an unclear payback.

Technological shifts

The greatest prospects are associated with solid oxide electrolyzers operating at temperatures above 1000 ° C. They are more efficient than common alkaline and proton exchange systems (80% of the market). Their implementation can reduce the cost of “green” hydrogen from the current $ 3-8 / kg to the level of “gray” ($ 0.5-1.7 / kg).

Development factors

The key driver is the excess of renewable energy, which can be directed to hydrogen production. Regions with developed gas transportation infrastructure suitable for conversion to H2 transportation are especially promising.

Conclusion

Despite the slowdown in growth rates, the industry continues to develop due to technological improvements. Mass transition to “green” hydrogen will remain limited until price parity with traditional production methods is achieved.