China is experiencing significant changes in its energy consumption patterns, which is affecting the oil industry and infrastructure, including gas stations. According to a report by the Economic and Technological Research Institute (ETRI) of the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), China could close up to 20,000 gas stations by 2030 due to declining demand for petroleum products. This is due to the rapid adoption of electric vehicles and heavy-duty trucks powered by liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Key drivers of change

Growing popularity of electric vehicles:

• The share of electric vehicles in China’s passenger car fleet reached 8.9% in 2024.
• Electric vehicles avoided 28 million tons of gasoline consumption in 2024.
• Electric vehicles are expected to reduce gasoline consumption by another 10 million tons by 2025.

LNG Truck Development:

• Heavy-duty LNG trucks traveled 70 billion km in 2024, up 50% from the previous year. This replaced about 25 million tons of diesel.
• LNG trucks are expected to reduce diesel consumption by 3-5 million tons by 2025.

Decrease in Oil Product Consumption:

• China’s oil consumption in 2024 was 756 million tons, virtually unchanged from the previous year.
• Refined oil consumption fell 2.4% to 390 million tons.
• Gasoline and diesel consumption fell 3.1% and 4.8%, respectively.

Growth in Chemical Industry Consumption:

Oil consumption by the chemical industry increased by 7.3% in 2024. This partially offset the decline in demand in the transportation sector.

Changes in Gas Station Infrastructure:

• The number of gas stations in China will decrease from 110,000 to about 90,000 by 2030.
• Traditional gas stations are being transformed into integrated energy stations offering fuel, gas, hydrogen, electric vehicle charging and other services.
• The gas station business model is shifting from “fueling” to “energy refueling.”

China’s Oil Consumption To Peak:

• China’s oil consumption is projected to peak in 2025 at 765 million tons.
• Coal consumption is expected to peak in 2028. This will allow China to peak its carbon emissions before 2030, as planned.

Disagreements In Forecasts:

• CNPC: China’s oil consumption will peak in 2025.
• OPEC: China’s oil demand to grow until 2050.
• Sinopec: China’s oil consumption to peak at 790-800 million tons in 2027.

Global trends

In 2024, global oil consumption grew by 900,000 barrels per day.
China is no longer the main driver of oil consumption growth: its contribution was only 10,000 barrels per day. India has become the new growth leader, increasing consumption by 200,000 barrels per day.

Conclusions

China is actively switching to alternative energy sources, which leads to a decrease in dependence on petroleum products. This puts pressure on the traditional oil industry and stimulates the transformation of infrastructure, including petrol stations. These changes are expected to help China achieve its goals of reducing carbon emissions and moving towards a more sustainable energy system.