The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its forecasts for peak oil consumption in the world and China in its new Oil 2025 report, due to the accelerated transition to electric vehicles and changes in the demand structure.

Key findings of the report:

Global oil consumption will peak in 2029 at 105.57 million barrels per day (mb/d).

• In 2024, consumption was 103.04 mb/d.
• BP previously predicted a peak in 2025, but the IEA believes that growth will continue due to petrochemicals and developing countries.

China (the largest oil consumer) will peak earlier – in 2027.

• In 2024, oil consumption in China decreased by 1.2% (Chinese statistics).
• Sinopec forecasts a peak in 2027 (16 mb/d), and gasoline demand has already peaked in 2023.
• CNPC believes that oil consumption in China has already plateaued.

Electric vehicles are the main factor in the decline in oil demand

• In 2024, sales of electric vehicles exceeded 17 million (more than 20% of the market).
• In 2025, 20+ million are expected (about 25% of all sales).
• This accelerates the decline in demand for gasoline and diesel.

Petrochemicals will become the main driver of demand from 2026

• The transport sector will reduce oil consumption, but the growth in the production of plastics and other petroleum products will support demand.

Geography of demand: growth in Asia, Africa and Latin America, decline in the US, Europe and the Middle East

• India, Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America are the main growth regions.
• Europe, US, Canada and Middle East – consumption decline.

Conclusion

The IEA expects a soft peak in oil by the end of the decade, followed by a gradual decline in demand. However, the pace of the transition to clean energy (especially in China) may accelerate this process. Petrochemicals will remain a key market, but the transport sector will become less dependent on oil.